Business Hub – Cairo:
The Egyptian state, through its implementation of the economic reform program, was able to and implementing balanced fiscal and monetary policies, Dealing and adapting to global challenges and crises, and developing appropriate solutions to contain its negative repercussions and reduce its effects on the Egyptian economy, At a time when efforts to improve the business and investment environment do not stop, support the productive sectors, Expansion of social protection initiatives, Egypt became one of the countries that was able to achieve a strong growth rate at a time when global economic growth is slowing down. This was reflected in the optimistic view of the major international institutions of the Egyptian economy.
In this regard, the Cabinet’s Media Center published a report that included infographics highlighting the expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Egypt to achieve the fourth highest growth rate among the most important global economies for the year 2023. This is despite the downgrade of growth forecasts for most global economies.
The report indicated that the International Monetary Fund maintained its forecasts for the growth of the Egyptian economy for the year 2021/2022. to outpace global growth averages, With a growth rate of 5.9% in the July 2022 forecast, This is the same as the Fund’s expectations for the growth rate of the Egyptian economy during the month of April of the same year.
The report mentioned the International Monetary Fund’s expectations of growth rates in July 2022 compared to April 2022, The Fund cut its global growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points. to 3.2%, compared to 3.6%, In addition, it cut its forecast for the growth rate of advanced economies by 0.8 percentage points. to 2.5%, compared to 3.3%.
The report completed the Fund’s expectations in July 2022 compared to April 2022, The Fund cut its forecast for the growth rate of emerging and developing economies by 0.2 percentage points, to 3.6%, compared to 3.8%, While lowering its forecast for the growth rate of the Middle East and North Africa region by 0.1 percentage point, To score 4.9% compared to 5%.
The report cited the International Monetary Fund’s forecasts for growth rates in 2023, Where he expected Egypt to record a growth rate of 4.8%, India will have a growth rate of 6.1%. and Pakistan at 3.5%, Iran, at 2%. This is in 2022/2023.
The report monitored the Fund’s expectations of the growth rates of the most important global economies during 2023. Where it is expected to register 5.2% in Indonesia, and 5% in the Philippines. and 4.7% in Malaysia, and 4.6% in China, and 4% in Thailand, and 3.9% in Kazakhstan, and 3.7% in Saudi Arabia, and 3.5% in Turkey, and 3.2% in Nigeria, and 3% in Argentina, and 2.2% in Australia, and 2.1% in South Korea.
In addition to the above, The Fund expected that during the year 2023, the growth rate in Spain and Poland would be 2%, and to register 1.8% in Canada, and 1.7% in Japan, and 1.4% in South Africa, and 1.2% in Mexico, and 1.1% in Brazil, and 1% in France, the Netherlands and the United States, and 0.8% in Germany, and 0.7% in Italy, and 0.5% in the United Kingdom.
In a related context, The IMF expected Russia to contract 3.5%, Note that the selected economies represent approximately 83% of global GDP.
The report touched on the most prominent comments of the International Monetary Fund on the performance of the Egyptian economy since the beginning of the crisis and how to confront it. Referring to what he said in March 2022 that the measures taken by Egypt are welcome steps due to the expansion of social protection directed to those who deserve it and the application of flexibility in the exchange rate movement in light of the impact of the repercussions of the crisis on the economy.
The report also indicated that the fund expected in April 2022, Reducing the high debt ratio of the Egyptian economy in the medium term, Based on the success in achieving a high primary surplus, which will reach 2% of GDP.
The fund also confirmed in April 2022 that it had a very successful experience with Egypt, Stressing that Egypt is now taking serious steps to support its financial stability and its continuation in implementing reforms, He also expected the unemployment rate to drop to 6.9% during 2022 and 2023 compared to 2021. During which the unemployment rate reached 7.3%.
In July 2022, The face of the IMF team, According to the report, Thanks to the Egyptian state for their frank and constructive discussions, This came after the IMF team and the Egyptian authorities held fruitful discussions on the economic policies and reforms to be supported during the coming period.
In addition to the above, In July 2022, the Fund affirmed that Egypt and the Fund’s program had achieved the main objective of maintaining the stability of the economy during the past years. He explained that moving forward there is a need to make decisive progress with deeper reforms to boost private sector development and improve governance.
The report reviewed the most prominent comments of the IMF report on the precarious economic situation in the world. Pointing out that the world economy will witness a bleak and more foggy atmosphere in 2022, After an initial recovery during 2021, Where the risks began to materialize on the ground, accompanied by a contraction in global output.
The report noted, To what the Fund said about reducing growth forecasts for major advanced economies in general in 2022 and 2023, As well as raising global inflation expectations as a result of the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis due to the high prices of food and energy, In addition to his explanation of the high rates of debt, as global conditions indicate that debt has reached critical levels in emerging and developing economies.
The Fund also stressed the exacerbation of the global food crisis, Especially with the restrictions on exports in many countries and the inflation of the prices of most grains in the world, The growth of world trade is likely to slow down significantly during 2022 and 2023, This reflects the decline in global demand levels and the problems facing global supply chains.